Michigan picked up their portal QB of the offseason today in Fresno State’s Mikey Keene:
— Mikey Keene (@Mikey_Keene) December 23, 2024
Keene was a 3*, #819 in the composite coming out of HS back in 2021 out of Chandler, AZ. He committed to UCF and arrived with first-year head coach Gus Malzahn, who was planning to start Dillon Gabriel at QB. Keene got a little bit of action against Bethune Cookman in Week 2 but otherwise was on the bench as a true freshman until Week 5, when he was asked to start following a season-ending injury to Gabriel in the previous game. Keene did alright in relief, starting the rest of the season including the bowl game against Florida, posting 17 TD to 6 INT, 6.4 Y/A, 63.6% completion. Nothing incredible, but considering the circumstances, he did his job.
Gabriel transferred to Oklahoma in the offseason, while the Knights brought in John Rhys Plumlee from Ole Miss. New OC Chip Lindsey oversaw a QB competition between Plumlee and Keene, with Plumlee winning the job and starting the season opener against South Carolina State. He’d start every game but one, a road contest at Memphis that saw Keene start and win the game for the ranked Knights. Keene played in three other games in relief but was able to preserve his redshirt and then he departed for Fresno State in the offseason.
Now in his third season of college football, Keene was the starter for a consistently competitive Fresno State squad and put together a nice year. Keene put up 24 TD to 10 INT, 67.1% completion at 7.1 Y/A, nearly 3,000 yards passing for the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs went 9-4 on the year, 4-4 in MWC play, and blew out New Mexico State in the bowl game. Keene was an honorable mention for the All-Mountain West team and expectations were reasonably high coming into this season.
[Bryan Fuller]
The Fresno State team around him took a step backwards, Jeff Tedford’s retirement in the summer playing a role as Tim Skipper coached the team to merely a 6-6 record. Keene completion precentage and Y/A improved (to 70.5% and 7.4) this season, while his yards were fairly similar (2,892) but TDs fell (18) and INTs rose a hair (11). For what it’s worth, PFF didn’t detect much change in Keene’s performance, a 75.9 grade vs. 78.3 the year before. He also had a 73.8 in his four games back in 2022, so Keene’s PFF grades have been fairly steady the last three seasons.
Michigan fans may be pretty familiar with Keene’s work, as he played the Wolverines in the season opener. Keene was 22/36 for 235 yards (6.5 Y/A), 1 TD to 2 INT, including a pick-six thrown to Will Johnson. PFF gave him a 71.8 grade for that performance. Readers who have followed the QB portal machinations may recall takes offered up by Brian and Seth about Keene, his rather weak arm and tendency to throw shorter, quicker passes. That’s the meat of Keene’s game, but it has brought him general success in the best mid-major conference. He’s a bit of a different stylistic fit than Bryce Underwood, not nearly the same run threat (-194 rushing yards this year… basically all sacks) and thus Toledo’s Dequan Finn would have been the closer replica in terms of play-style. But it seems that familiarity with new OC Chip Lindsey won out in this case.
It certainly appears that Bryce Underwood waiting in the wings was a major hinderance in getting a power conference starting QB to transfer to Michigan, even ones with just a year remaining. It appears that QBs in that mold did not want to risk their collegiate career ending by being benched in the middle of the season, which there certainly is a risk of with Underwood at Michigan. Nebraska’s QB pursuits in the portal last year had a similar end point, as the Huskers ended up just rolling with 5* true freshman Dylan Raiola in the end. Keene is willing to take the risk, because for a player in his shoes the opportunity to get to start at a program like Michigan is too enticing to pass up, as a former 3* from a mid-major conference.
At which point we should acknowledge that it’s pretty up in the air how much Keene will start at Michigan. He gives the Wolverines a bit of a floor, possibly alongside Davis Warren if he is to stick around. I think the hope for Keene is that he’s serviceable enough to get you through the first month of the season, which includes road games @ Oklahoma and @ Nebraska. Keene is a veteran of CFB, who has started road games at night in the Big House, Rose Bowl, and Sun Devil Stadium. He won’t be fazed by those environments as Underwood might. Michigan gets a week five bye before a home game vs. Wisconsin, which realistically is the time to be on Bryce Underwood watch. If Keene excels and retains the starting job, sweet, but he’s not the caliber of player that makes me think there’s no chance we see Underwood starting in the fall of 2025. It’s a solid add, giving you a floor at the QB position, but the ceiling, of course, will remain with the kid from Belleville.
