Hawaii shoppers didn’t always have to hunt for parking on Black Friday; however, those engaging in the annual tradition were serious, judging from the lines out the door at some stores and the number of shoppers juggling bags like they were playing to win Jenga.

Black Friday and holiday sales, based on a myriad of national forecasts, are expected to outpace 2022’s spending, but the pace of growth is expected to slow.

A reason forecasters aren’t predicting Black Friday growth to hit full throttle is that while inflation has eased, many goods and services are more expensive or seem more expensive than they did coming out of the pandemic. The popularity of online shopping also grew during the pandemic and hasn’t abated given the continued popularity of Cyber Monday, the Monday after Thanksgiving, when e-commerce deals abound.

Analysts carefully watch the five-day Black Friday weekend — which includes Cyber Monday — as it’s a key barometer of shoppers’ willingness to spend. It’s also a strong indicator of how retailers will finish the year. The very name Black Friday harks back to the days before computers, when accountants used red ink to mark losses and black ink to mark gains.

“Traditionally, it was the time when most tenants would begin to kind of turn a profit,” Pearlridge Center General Manager David Cianelli said. “Sales for this period can be in the 30% range for the year.”

Cianelli said shopping traffic at Pearlridge Center this year “looked very similar” to 2022, but he is expecting a slight increase in sales.

“It was very impressive to have a few hundred people lined up between 5 a.m. and 6 a.m.,” he said, adding that the center’s Black Friday hours were from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m., and a variety of extended shopping hours are planned through New Year’s Day.

Cianelli said that during the pandemic some shoppers shifted to online shopping, but in 2022 many returned to in-person shopping and he expects even more this year.

His observations aligned with traffic patterns at other Oahu shopping venues such as Ala Moana Center, where there were long lines at a number of retail stores, including Ocean Creations, Laine Honolulu, LexBreezy Hawaii, Lululemon, Hawaii’s Finest, Manaola and Brandy Melville.

Shoppers going to the Waikele Premium Outlets backed up traffic at the Waikele exit on the H-1 freeway.

Retail analyst Stephany Sofos said Kahala Mall was not as packed as some years, but she noted that there were plenty of deals to entice cautious shoppers to spend. She said one popular early-bird promotion allowed shoppers to get up to six Hawaiian Airlines miles for every $1 they spent up to a maximum of $400 for 2,400 miles.

Local retail observations tracked with an annual survey released earlier this month by the National Retail Federation, the nation’s largest retail trade group, and Prosper Insights & Analytics, which estimates 182 million people plan to shop in stores and online from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday this year.

The forecast includes 15.7 million more people than 2022 and is the highest estimate since NRF began tracking this data in 2017. But the survey expects U.S. holiday sales will rise only 3% to 4% for November through December, totaling between $957.3 billion and $966.6 billion. In 2022, sales grow 5.4% to $929.5 billion.

The continued importance of Cyber Monday cannot be ignored. Adobe Analytics, which tracks online spending, said online sales on Thanksgiving Day, when many brick-and-mortar stores are closed, rose 5.5% to $5.6 billion from a year ago. The firm said online sales on Black Friday are forecast to reach $9.6 billion, up 5.7% compared with the year-ago period.

Adobe Analytics expects e-commerce retailers to lure shoppers with deeper discounts than in 2022, particularly for toys, electronics and clothing. However, many brick-and-mortar stores in Hawaii and elsewhere are holding their own by establishing their own online presence, as well as starting Black Friday specials early and offering in-store-only deals.

Kauhi Tehiva, retail store leader for Manaola’s Pearlridge Center location, said online sales began at 6 a.m. as well. However, the earliest shoppers who came into the store got a free clutch. Tehiva said they also got to enjoy live entertainment and the “sense of community that comes with Black Friday.”

Donese Martin said she got up early to shop at Manaola, where the deals were better than online. Martin said that she also enjoyed the festive setting as “I haven’t been shopping on Black Friday since the pandemic.”

For many Hawaii shoppers, Black Friday was a family affair. Janelle Meheula said she was up at 3 a.m. for her first Black Friday shopping experience, which included spending time with fiance Johnathan Ortogero as well as her granddaughter, son and daughter-in-law.

“It was such a special day. I had challenges before but now I’m embracing life,” Meheula said. “My granddaughter picked out some presents, including a ring.”

Sam Shenkus, vice president, director of marketing for Royal Hawaiian Center, said the holidays kicked off Wednesday with the arrival of Aloha Santa, who will now be available for complimentary professional photos every Wednesday and Saturday from 5:30 to 7:30 p.m. through Dec. 23.

“We have hundreds of people every year, but we had more people on Wednesday night than we have ever had,” Shenkus said. “The impression that I got is that there is huge pent-up demand, particularly for families to do things with their children to celebrate significant holidays.”

Shenkus said another “feel-good” aspect to this year’s Black Friday was the chance to support local businesses, whose importance to the state’s economy has come into sharper focus since the Maui wildfires. She said on Monday and Tuesday, Royal Hawaiian Center hosted Maui vendors at a special “Kokua for Maui Shop and Show Aloha” event.

Gov. Josh Green and state Business, Economic Development and Tourism Director James Kunane Tokioka are among those championing shopping local.

Green said in a statement, “This holiday season, let’s come together to uplift our local businesses. By supporting local, we directly and positively impact our communities and further economic growth across the islands. All of our local businesses, from micro- enterprises to larger companies, especially those on Maui, can use our help.”

Ku‘ulei Vedder, owner of Homegrown at Pearlridge Center, said she went to Maui after the fire to kokua, and now two dozen Maui brands are in the store, which carries products from 200 small businesses of which 80% are made in Hawaii.

“We wanted to help Maui rebuild. Some of them lost their businesses; a few lost their homes or places of work,” Vedder said, proudly pointing out an olelo Hawaii set from Leinani Hong, a Maui educator whose business is called She Wood Go.

Jolene Harrington-Laga, owner of Sweet Okole Jewelry, said shopping local matters. She opened the brick-and-mortar store in Pearlridge Center after 35 years of craft fairs and five years of kiosks. Generations of the family now work in the store or have spun off their own businesses.

“Holiday sales are important,” Harrington-Laga said. “It can be as much as 30% to 35% of annual sales. This year we are off to a good start. That’s good because as the business has grown, it’s created opportunities.”

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The Associated Press contributed to this story.